Dont forget the cell phones
Political polls that include cell phone users show Obama leading McCain by an average of 10 points, versus just over five points in land-line-only surveys, notes a Sunday survey put together by Nate Silver, founder of the electoral projections site FiveThirtyEight.
The survey shows a snapshot of 15 polls conducted on behalf of media companies and by polling companies such as Gallup and Zogby. Six of those, including one released late Sunday by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, include cell phone users. The rest don’t.
It’s easy to forget how out of touch pollsters may be when it comes to reaching important demographics. I know I’m not the only person who doesn’t have a land line in the house. The number was around 14% last year.
2008 Election: Going All-In Edition
It always seems like a good idea to make some predictions surrounding a big election day if for no other reason than to piss people off one last time before the big day. I’m sticking with state issues this year as national politics couldn’t get any less interesting. The presidential race in particular has proven itself more sitcom than future of the free world.
So lets start at the bottom with the Massachusetts ballot questions.
Question One: State Personal Income Tax
This proposed law would reduce the state personal income tax rate to 2.65% for all categories of taxable income for the tax year beginning on or after January 1, 2009, and would eliminate the tax for all tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2010. The personal income tax applies to income received or gain realized by individuals and married couples, by estates of deceased persons, by certain trustees and other fiduciaries, by persons who are partners in and receive income from partnerships, by corporate trusts, and by persons who receive income as shareholders of “S corporations” as defined under federal tax law. The proposed law would not affect the tax due on income or gain realized in a tax year beginning before January 1, 2009. The proposed law states that if any of its parts were declared invalid, the other parts would stay in effect.
This is going to fail by the slimmest of margins, I’m going to guess by under 5 percentage points, which will hopefully be a wake-up call to State Legislators and Municipalities to change the way they spend. The proposal is flawed on two fronts; we spend too much money but nobody can admit they’re part of the problem and even if we did cut the income tax we don’t currently have legislative body intelligent enough to make cuts responsibly. All we keep hearing about are the disastrous cuts that would be necessary to education and public safety, what we don’t hear are intelligent forward thinking discussion as to how we can revamp our current systems on every front. From the courts to education and from public safety to waste removal we need to be both more efficient and represent current needs. Even without the loss of income tax revenue, we’re still headed for major funding shortages in MA, so we should be looking to revamp our entire spending package now before we’re forced to in a few years.
Question Two: Possession of Marijuana
This proposed law would replace the criminal penalties for possession of one ounce or less of marijuana with a new system of civil penalties, to be enforced by issuing citations, and would exclude information regarding this civil offense from the state’s criminal record information system. Offenders age 18 or older would be subject to forfeiture of the marijuana plus a civil penalty of $100. Offenders under the age of 18 would be subject to the same forfeiture and, if they complete a drug awareness program within one year of the offense, the same $100 penalty.
Question two is going to become the standard for what a successful ballot question looks like. I’m going to say this one passes at somewhere between 65-70%. I’m not convinced there is a lot of high level anti-prohibition thought in play here, just common sense thinking. Once the fog of anti-drug indoctrination clears, people begin to realize that even if there is potential harm from marijuana, it’s still far less harmful than alcohol, tobacco and most over the counter medications. Possibly even less harmful than spending hours eating fluffernutter sandwiches while watching Emeril Lagasse pimp cookware on the Home Shopping Network; not that I would know anything about the latter. Laws should not prohibit (mostly) harmless behavior.
This proposed law would prohibit any dog racing or racing meeting in Massachusetts where any form of betting or wagering on the speed or ability of dogs occurs. The State Racing Commission would be prohibited from accepting or approving any application or request for racing dates for dog racing. Any person violating the proposed law could be required to pay a civil penalty of not less than $20,000 to the Commission. The penalty would be used for the Commission’s administrative purposes, subject to appropriation by the state Legislature. All existing parts of the chapter of the state’s General Laws concerning dog and horse racing meetings would be interpreted as if they did not refer to dogs. These changes would take effect January 1, 2010. The proposed law states that if any of its parts were declared invalid, the other parts would stay in effect.
Question three is going to pass by the same ridiculously slim margins that question one fails, but that passage will end up being overruled/ignored by the legislature.
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As far as contested state races, the one to watch will be the one that didn’t exist until two weeks ago. The Thirteenth Worcester seat held by Robert Spellane is being contested in a last minute sticker campaign by former City Council candidate (he lost) John Mahoney. If you haven’t been paying attention, this last minute fiasco started with a series of stories in the T&G which hint at questionable personal dealings, without actually presenting any concrete accusations, based on probate court hearings surrounding what appears to be a pretty nasty divorce. As a resident of the 13th the problem I see here is Mahoney has done nothing to show me how he is a better choice than Spellane when it comes to policy. None of the claims against Spellane are relevant until they see their day in court, preferably a court other than probate. How sincere a guy is in his church attendance or marriage vows is not very interesting, all I want to know how you plan on representing me. Mahoney has failed on that front.
I think voters are smart enough to see an opportunist when presented with one and that is what we have in this case. Spellane will pull off a win, but he’s going to have to work hard over the next few years to keep this seat, as he can be sure a real race will present itself in the next cycle.
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The other state race affecting Worcester is the State Senate seat vacated by Ed Augustus. Republican John Lebeaux and Democrat Michael Moore are battling this one out. Actually no, that was a joke. Do you really think a Republican stands a chance at this seat? You must be new here then. If you want to see just how silly this race is, take a drive through Leicester or Auburn and check out all the Moore yard signs set up next to McCain/Palin signs. The absolute inability for a Republican to gain any traction in MA is actually quite funny.
My crystal ball says Moore wins.
Worcester City Councilor Joe Petty on knives
I submited the following question to WCCA’s SoapBox to be asked of City Councilor Joe Petty yesterday:
I, like many law abiding citizens carry a knife in some form everywhere I go as a force of habit. What empirical evidence do you use as a foundation for your belief that an individual who has decided to commit manslaughter with a knife, or any weapon for that matter, would have a change of heart in the face of a monetary fine?
If you skip to the 3:50 mark you can see the question is essentially skipped and instead Councilor Petty is given an opportunity to explain his position. Please allow me be the first to say we as citizens of Worcester should be frightend that this man plays a role in deciding what is best for us all. Councilor Petty may be one of the least articulate and poorly reasoned men to ever hold a leadership position in our fair city. If a degenerate such as myself can identify those character flaws, you sir are in way over your head.
Ballot Question FAIL
I’ll be happy to wager 10 American dollars that at least one person ends up voting to abolish the state income tax instead of dog racing as a result of this graphic mix-up on the T&G website today.
The image also accompanies the linked story.
Anyone notice if this was the case in the print version as well?
link
$900
$900 is the amount I would be fined for leaving the house today according to this proposed ordinance featured in todays T&G.
The ordinance, developed by the Police Department, Worcester District Attorney’s office and city officials, would fine people $300 for carrying knives.
What exactly leads the Worcester Chief of Police Gary Gemme and District Attorney Joe Early Jr. to believe that an individual who as decided to commit manslaughter will be detered by a $300 fine? Seriously, thats the best you could come up with?
Rank and file members of the WPD and DA’s office seriously need to think about distancing themselves publicly from their respective superiors and unions as they continue to make decisions which have little to no impact on their stated goals, but instead foster a sense of contempt and distrust amongst the public they serve. This ordinance is silly and stands to make much of the good work you do appear silly as a result.
Sarah Palin is simply a dangerous person
You’ve heard about some of these pet projects they really don’t make a whole lot of sense and sometimes these dollars go to projects that have little or nothing to do with the public good. Things like fruit fly research in Paris, France. I kid you not.
The Drosophila fruit fly is probably the stickiest subject in any level of science education and most students first introduction to genetics. So in a bizarre way it makes sense that a creationist would discount such research. However this statement was made while she was giving a speech on Americans with disabilities and early identification of such disorders, primarily autism. How does this twit think early identification of genetic disorders such as autism is possible without studying the very nature of genetics? Is she suggesting that we perform autism research on autistic kids? I’m sure their parents wont mind.
Well I still haven’t resolved my problems with Obama/Biden on a number of policy issues, but this seals the deal for me on McCain/Palin. This idiot can not be allowed any where near a position of power, send her back to her welfare state before she’s given the opportunity to do any real damage.
Now scientists at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine have shown that a protein called neurexin is required for these nerve cell connections to form and function correctly.
The discovery, made in Drosophila fruit flies may lead to advances in understanding autism spectrum disorders, as recently, human neurexins have been identified as a genetic risk factor for autism.
You can even cut a tin can with it!
I heard this Tuesday while watching the City Council meeting and thought I must have heard wrong. But if it’s in print its gotta be true, right?
The City Council voted on Tuesday to get a draft of an ordinance that would prohibit the possession of “certain knives and weapons known to be used in criminal activities.”
Work with me here kids, is it not the case that any knife becomes exactly the kind of knife used in criminal activities immediately upon entering an unwilling liver (with the exception of foie gras)? Why is it so hard for politicians to understand/admit that criminal activities are dependent on humans, not inanimate objects.
Joe the Plumber, meet Al the Shoe salesman
More runners than the NYC Marathon
Yesterdays T&G story about State Rep Bob Spellane by Shaun Sutner, which was ripe with details but not a single factual accusation of wrongdoing, has opened up the predictable floodgates of potential write-in challengers to what is perceived as a vulnerable seat.
So far I’ve been told the following people are definitely probably pretty sure they’re running a two week sticker campaign for the Thirteenth Worcester seat:
- • Everyone who has played baseball at Jesse Burkett Little League since 1970
• Everyone who has ever held a sign, for any political candidate, in Newton Sq
• 50% of City of Worcester employees living in Paxton
• Anyone under 35 with a Facebook page
• Everyone who has threatened to run against Spellane in the past but bailed
• Bill Coleman
What’s interesting is if you count all the people planning sticker campaigns and divide up their bases, they still loose in a 52 way race against Spellane since nobody has to remember how to spell his name. This is why we have primary elections. The other interesting component is timing, not much in that story should be news to anyone who would be in the position to size up a candidate. So what makes these folks think they are any more qualified to act in the legislature today, than they were 6 months ago, other than the smell of blood?
Powell endorses Obama
Hell of an endorsement week and a powerful statement from Powell.
